Session D04: The Increasing Danger of Nuclear Weapons: How Physicists Can Help Reduce the Threat

Schrodinger's Technology is Here and Not: Quantum Technology Implications for Nuclear Deterrence

Many nuclear policy experts classify quantum technologies as "emerging" or "disruptive" technologies that have the potential to undermine nuclear deterrence or fundamentally reshape deterrence requirements. For example, they caution that quantum computers could enable interference with encrypted command and control systems, quantum communication techniques could afford bolstered security of information transmission, and quantum sensors could enhance detection of mobile delivery systems that assure means of retaliation. If ongoing quantum research and development confers these technologies and capabilities, the consequences for existing nuclear force structure and deterrence policies would be profound. However, there has been a lack of critical, technical analysis to verify or refute whether these claims are realistic and at what timeframes such breakthroughs should be expected. As a result, policymakers with limited technical backgrounds are influenced by these assertions, regardless of whether they are feasible, when making decisions on nuclear force structure buildup, deterrence postures, and engagement in arms control. This presentation leverages scientific literature to survey technically-feasible quantum innovations that could impact nuclear deterrence and critique inflated assertions that are stoking concern among policymakers. It will also propose opportunities to enhance communication on quantum research and development progress across technical and non-technical audiences to ensure more informed and realistic expectations.   

Advances in Earth Observation Capabilities and their Impact on Nuclear Stability

Miniaturization of technology and cheaper space launches coupled with increased military and civilian demand for information are driving a revolution in space-based Earth observation capabilities. Constellations of commercial and national operated imaging satellites are already providing imagery of the surface with a sub-daily frequency. In the near future, swarms of observation satellites could provide enough data to establish an environment with persistent, high-resolution and multispectral coverage of the surface. This data will be delivered in real-time and analyzed by artificial intelligence algorithms able to autonomously and automatically process it to monitor large areas and detect and track ground activity. In a future driven by technological change but possibly without effective arms control treaties to manage the nuclear competition, increased overhead transparency may instigate a destabilizing nuclear arms race. Alternatively - if nuclear weapon states accept the conditions of increased visibility and establish norms where this does not fuel instability - new capabilities will provide more predictability to their relationships, and could facilitate a new generation of arms control.   

International efforts to reduce the increasing danger of nuclear weapons

Physicists have been concerned about nuclear weapons since the earliest days of their development. Recently, a renewed grassroots effort has emerged, to organize members of our field from around the world to educate the public and policy makers about the increasing dangers of these weapons and to advocate for policies that reduce those dangers. I will report on a workshop [1] that took place in October 2023 at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, which convened approximately 45 physicists from 15 nations, focused on the question “How can physicists help reduce the nuclear threat?” I’ll describe some of the main themes and takeaways of the workshop, which included new technical developments related to nuclear weapons, the state of physicists’ engagement in various nations, ethical questions about weapons related work, how to communicate with the public and students, and how we can organize local, national and international efforts. Physicists in the United States have unique privileges, responsibilities and opportunities for engaging with these issues.

[1] https://www.ictp.it/news/2023/10/engaging-physicists-nuclear-disarmament