Mixed signals in future climate extremes: understanding counterintuitive results*

If temperatures warm in the future, if everything else remains constant, there should be less snowfall since temperatures will rise above freezing more often. If we know a region will become drier on average in the future, and storms have constant rainfall amounts, the likelihood of extreme events should decline. But these stationarity assumptions do not hold true, resulting in what can appear to be counterintuitive changes in climate phenomena and extremes. We will discuss where snowfall accumulation and blizzards may actually increase and why some glaciers have been expanding. We will also discuss why a region may become drier overall, but also have increased risk for extreme precipitation events. While these regional changes may seem counterintuitive, they can actually be explained by unique conditions, seasonality, and changes in atmospheric moisture.