Bulletin of the American Physical Society
APS March Meeting 2018
Volume 63, Number 1
Monday–Friday, March 5–9, 2018; Los Angeles, California
Session C58: Large Deviations and the Butterfly Effect
2:30 PM–5:30 PM,
Monday, March 5, 2018
LACC
Room: Petree Hall C
Sponsoring
Unit:
GSNP
Chair: Michael Wilkinson, Open Univ
Abstract ID: BAPS.2018.MAR.C58.5
Abstract: C58.00005 : Diffusion, Deviation and Divergence: Limits to Predictability in Nonlinear Systems*
4:54 PM–5:30 PM
Presenter:
Leonard Smith
(Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, The London School of Economics and Political Science)
Author:
Leonard Smith
(Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, The London School of Economics and Political Science)
Lacking a perfect model, it is argued that even very good models of dissipative systems (models with shadowing times vastly longer than the targeted forecast lead times) will have limited probability forecast abilities. Accountable probability forecasts are limited only by the fact that they are based upon a finite number of simulations. It is argued that structural model error (the loss of topological conjugacy) places accountable probability forecasts beyond our reach in a manner reminiscent of the way that nonlinearity and chaos disqualified precise point forecasts as a rational goal in forecasting.
Achievable aims for simulation-based forecasting are introduced, including the provision of more effective, early(er) warnings of high impact events. This returns us rather close to the aims and challenges (both scientific and professional) of Admiral Fitzroy's original storm warnings. While discussed primarily in terms of weather phenomena, the basic challenges faced in obtaining Just Enough Decisive Information for decision support are expected in all simulation-based probabilistic forecasting endeavours.
*ECOPOTENTIAL - Grant Ref. 210185204
CRUISSE - Grant Ref. EP/P016847/1
GLIMPSE - Grant Ref. RFFLP018
To cite this abstract, use the following reference: http://meetings.aps.org/link/BAPS.2018.MAR.C58.5
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