Session A2: Future of Fossil Fuels

Energizing our Future: How Disinformation and Ignorance are Misdirecting Our Efforts

Most of the energy-source choices that are being considered or implemented for future use by governments and by a wide variety of would-be manufacturers are driven by assumptions that are often uninformed and sometimes intentionally \textit{misinformed}. These dangerous assumptions relate to ``drivers'' that range from the causes (and proposed fixes) of \textit{Global Warming} to the myth of \textit{``Peak Oil''} to the dubious viability of \textit{Hydrogen} as a vehicle fuel to the uncertain feasibility of replacing most of our conventional fossil energy supplies with fuels such as \textit{Ethanol} derived from \textit{Renewable Resources}. Regrettably, many of these misinformed assumptions and misplaced beliefs are being used as the basis for major decisions involving huge investments in technologies that simply cannot do the job, a potential catastrophe. There is no place for what we will call ``Faith-Based Science'' in major business decisions of this kind. This talk will examine some of the key beliefs that are driving our current energy decision-making process and will expose the uncomfortable facts that dictate that \textit{fossil fuels}, like it or not, should and will remain our primary energy source for many years to come, at least until solar energy becomes economically viable. For example, it will be shown that biomass-based fuels can, at best, be only a minor contributor to meeting the world's future energy needs; that the use of nuclear power, whether or not we consider it environmentally attractive; will be severely limited by a shortfall in nuclear fuel supplies; and that hydrogen as a transportation fuel will at best be a niche player and perhaps not a player at all. As we re-activate, improve and implement the many ``clean'' fossil-fuel technologies that were developed 25 years ago, we must also focus intensely on developing the energy technologies that really can replace fossil fuels in the years following 2050 or so when their availability will really be in decline. It will be argued that the optimum choices then will clearly be a combination of the various forms of solar energy and, of course, wind energy.   

Clean Fossil Energy Conversion Processes

Absolute and per-capita energy consumption is bound to increase globally, leading to a projected increase in energy requirements of 50{\%} by 2020. The primary source for providing a majority of the energy will continue to be fossil fuels. However, an array of enabling technologies needs to be proven for the realization of a zero emission power, fuel or chemical plants in the near future. Opportunities to develop new processes, driven by the regulatory requirements for the reduction or elimination of gaseous and particulate pollutant abound. This presentation describes the chemistry, reaction mechanisms, reactor design, system engineering, economics, and regulations that surround the utilization of clean coal energy. The presentation will cover the salient features of the fundamental and process aspects of the clean coal technologies in practice as well as in development. These technologies include those for the cleaning of SO$_{2}$, H$_{2}$S, NO$_{x}$, and heavy metals, and separation of CO$_{2}$ from the flue gas or the syngas. Further, new combustion and gasification processes based on the chemical looping concepts will be illustrated in the context of the looping particle design, process heat integration, energy conversion efficiency, and economics.   

The future of fossil fuels

With today's energy technology, the world faces a stark choice between economic growth and a healthy environment. The accumulation of CO$_{2}$ in the atmosphere must stop, while energy services to a growing world population striving for a high standard of living must improve. New technologies must eliminate CO$_{2}$ emissions. Only carbon capture and storage can maintain access to fossil carbon reserves that by themselves could satisfy energy demand for centuries. Technologies for CO$_{2}$ capture at power plants and other large sources already exist. A new generation of efficient, clean power plants could capture its CO$_{2}$ and deliver it for underground injection or mineral sequestration. However, the remaining CO$_{2}$ emissions from distributed sources are too large to be ignored. Either hydrogen or electricity need to substitute for carbonaceous energy carriers, or CO$_{2}$ emissions must be balanced out by capturing an equivalent amount of carbon from the environment. Biomass growth offers one such option; direct capture of CO$_{2}$ from the air provides another. Carbon capture and storage technologies can close the anthropogenic carbon cycle and, thus, provide one possible avenue to a world that is not limited by energy constraints.   

Assessing the promise of natural gas hydrates as an unconventional source of energy

Gas hydrates are a naturally occurring ``ice-like'' combination of natural gas and water that have the potential to provide an immense resource of natural gas from the world's oceans and polar regions. The amount of natural gas contained in the world's gas hydrate accumulations is enormous, but these estimates are speculative and range over three orders-of-magnitude from about 2,800 to 8,000,000 trillion cubic meters of gas. By comparison, conventional natural gas accumulations (reserves and technically recoverable undiscovered resources) for the world are estimated at approximately 440 trillion cubic meters as reported in the ``U.S. Geological Survey 2000 World Petroleum Assessment.'' Despite the enormous range in reported gas hydrate volumetric estimates, even the lowest reported estimates seem to indicate that gas hydrates are a much greater resource of natural gas than conventional accumulations. However, it is important to note that none of these assessments has predicted how much gas could actually be produced from the world's gas hydrate accumulations. Proposed methods of gas recovery from hydrates generally deal with dissociating or ``melting'' in-situ gas hydrates by heating the reservoir beyond the temperature of hydrate formation, or decreasing the reservoir pressure below hydrate equilibrium. Computer models have been developed to evaluate natural gas production from hydrates by both heating and depressurization. Depressurization is considered to be the most economically promising method for the production of natural gas from gas hydrates. Estimates vary on when gas hydrate production will play a significant role in the total world energy mix; however, it is possible that hydrates will be able to provide a sustainable supply of gas for the world's future energy needs.   

The Physics of Heavy Oils: Implications for Recovery and Geophysical Monitoring

Our capacity to find and produce conventional light petroleum oils are unable to keep pace with the growth in the growing global demand for energy. With the breakpoint between petroleum production and consumption imminent, a good deal of recent efforts have focused on developing the `heavy' hydrocarbon reserves. Such resources include the extensive heavy oil deposits of Venezuela, the bitumen resources of Canada, and even the solid kerogens (oil shale) of the United States. Capital investments, in particular, have been large in Canada's oil sands due in part to the extensive nature of the resource and already in excess of 30{\%} of Canada's production comes from heavier hydrocarbon deposits. The larger input costs associated with such projects, however, requires that the production be monitored more fully; and this necessitates that both the oils and the porous media which hold them be understood. Geophysical `time-lapse' monitoring seeks to better constrain the areal distribution and movements of fluids in the subsurface by examining the changes in a geophysical response such as seismic reflectivity, micro-gravity variations, or electrical conductivity that arise during production. For example, a changed geophysical seismic character directly depends on relies on variations in the longitudinal and transverse wave speeds and attenuation and mass densities of the materials in the earth. These are controlled by a number of extrinsic conditions such as temperature, fluid pressure, confining stress, and fluid phase and saturation state. Understanding the geophysical signature over a given reservoir requires that the behavior of the porous rock physical properties be well understood and a variety of measurements are being made in laboratories. In current practice, the interpretation of the geophysical field responses is assisted by combined modeling of fluid flow and seismic wave fields. The least understood link in this process, however, is the lack of knowledge on rock physical properties under the conditions encountered within a reservoir.