Bulletin of the American Physical Society
74th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics
Volume 66, Number 17
Sunday–Tuesday, November 21–23, 2021; Phoenix Convention Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Session H02: Minisymposia: Fluids Next: Environmental Turbulent Flows Under the Effect of Climate Change
8:00 AM–10:10 AM,
Monday, November 22, 2021
Room: North 120 CD
Sponsoring Units: GPC DFD
Chair: Luminita Danaila, Université de Rouen; Bruce Sutherland, Univ. of Alberta
Abstract: H02.00005 : New ways for dynamical prediction of extreme heat waves: rare event simulations and stochastic process-based machine learning.*
9:44 AM–10:10 AM
(ENS de Lyon)
(ENS de Lyon)
(CNRS and ENS de Lyon)
We will discuss several new algorithms and theoretical approaches, based on large deviation theory, rare event simulations, and machine learning for stochastic processes, which we have specifically designed for the prediction of the committor function (the probability of the extreme event to occur). We will discuss results for the study of midlatitude extreme heat waves and demonstrate the performance of these tools.
Using the best available climate models, our approach shed new light on the fluid mechanics processes which lead to extreme heat waves. We will describe quasi-stationary patterns of turbulent Rossby waves that lead to global teleconnection pattern in connection with heat waves and analyze their dynamics.
We stress the relevance of these patterns for recently observed extreme heat waves with huge impact and the prediction potential of our approach.
*Some of the research leading to these results has received funding from the European Research Council under the European Union's seventh Frame- work Programme (FP7/2007-2013 Grant Agreement No. 616811). Some through the ACADEMICS grant of the IDEXLYON, project of the Université de Lyon, PIA operated by ANR-16-IDEX-0005. The computation of this work were partially performed on the PSMN platform of ENS de Lyon. This work was granted access to the HPC resources of CINES under the DARI allocations
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