Bulletin of the American Physical Society
74th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics
Volume 66, Number 17
Sunday–Tuesday, November 21–23, 2021; Phoenix Convention Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Session H02: Minisymposia: Fluids Next: Environmental Turbulent Flows Under the Effect of Climate Change
8:00 AM–10:10 AM,
Monday, November 22, 2021
Room: North 120 CD
Sponsoring
Units:
GPC DFD
Chair: Luminita Danaila, Université de Rouen; Bruce Sutherland, Univ. of Alberta
Abstract: H02.00001 : Climate Variability and Climate Change: A Unified Framework*
8:00 AM–8:26 AM
Presenter:
Michael Ghil
(University of California, Los Angeles)
Author:
Michael Ghil
(University of California, Los Angeles)
The concepts and methods of the NDS and RDS approach will be introduced and will be illustrated using a stochastically perturbed version of the Lorenz (1963) convection model. This illustration will be followed by applications to models of the wind-driven ocean circulation. One finds that two local PBAs, a quiescent and a chaotic one, coexist within the wind-driven ocean model's decadally modulated global PBA.
Implications for the climate sciences in general and for atmospheric, oceanic and coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in particular will be discussed from the perspective of the Anthropocene.
References
Ghil, M. and V. Lucarini, 2020: The physics of climate variability and climate change, Rev. Mod. Phys., 92(3), 035002, doi:10.1103/RevModPhys.92.035002.
Pierini, S., and M. Ghil, 2021: Climate tipping points induced by parameter drift: an excitable system study, Scientific Reports, 11, 11126, doi:10.1038/s41598-021-90138-1.
Vannitsem, S., J. Demaeyer, and M. Ghil, 2021: Extratropical low-frequency variability with ENSO forcing: A reduced-order coupled model study, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 13, e2021MS002530, doi:10.1029/2021MS002530.
*This talk reflects work under the Tipping Points in the Earth System (TiPES) project; TiPES has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 820970.
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