Bulletin of the American Physical Society
Joint Fall 2022 Meeting of the Texas Section of the APS, Texas Section of the AAPT, and Zone 13 of the SPS
Volume 67, Number 11
Thursday–Saturday, October 13–15, 2022; Rice University, Houston, Texas
Session L05: Astrophysics and Space Science III
10:30 AM–11:42 AM,
Saturday, October 15, 2022
Rice University BRC
Room: 284
Chair: Samina Masood, University of Houston - Clear Lake
Abstract: L05.00005 : Prototyping Multi-model Ensemble Forecasts of Ground Magnetic Disturbances*
11:18 AM–11:30 AM
Presenter:
Kathryn A Wilbanks
(University of Texas at Arlington)
Authors:
Kathryn A Wilbanks
(University of Texas at Arlington)
Daniel Welling
(University of Texas at Michigan)
This study examines the efficacy of multi-model ensembles for GMD forecasting. Following the same validation process that led to the implementation of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) at SWPC. Utilizing the open data set from Pulkkenin et al. 2013, results combined five models to produce a multi-model ensemble via a naive probabilistic classifier (NPC). Analysis of the ensemble was compared to the SWMF with three metrics and one skill score. The approach taken in the creation of the NPC was based on a set number of models crossing set thresholds in the same time frame. Overall the models’ included all have a predilection towards underprediction, and this is apparent in the lowering in the Heidke Skill Score and in the Bias. However, looking at specific events and magnetometer groupings improvements can be found. Strong improvements are seen for specific events or magnetometer groupings, such as events 4 and 8.
Being able to show feasibility of ensemble models in space weather forecasting is an important next step for the community as we explore new methodologies and applications.
*This work was supported by the University of Otago Solar Tsunamis program and the NASA Heliophysics Data Environment Enhancement (HDEE) program
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