Prize Talk: George E. Pake PrizeA vision for the next 75 years -- from a transistor to AI enabler

The discovery of quantum physics in the early 20th century enabled the development of solid-state devices and circuits, thus making Tera-bit integrated circuits technology and the semiconductor industry possible. The invention of the transistor 75 years ago, was not only a replacement of vacuum tube electronics but also a creation of a brand new modern electronic and information industry. 

In the past 60 years, semiconductor integrated circuits technology has progressed with exponential pace, and resulted in a tremendously thriving information technology and communication (ITC) industry. This amazing progress was driven by the past 30+ consecutive generations of device shrinkage with silicon processing technology scaling, according to the conjecture of an empirical Moore’s Law. Now this classical Moore’s Law may be ending with the challenges of one nanometer or sub-nanometer node. However, it is believed that the one nanometer barrier could be virtually conquered by some sophisticated but smart approaches. Effectively, Moore’s Law will continue with various forms of virtual scaling, such as 1,000-layer 3D NAND structure, optimized Chiplet approaches, 2D material transistors, or heterogeneous integration assembly, etc. to improve the overall ITC system’s functionality and cost performance/power ratio. Another 30-40 years of prosperous semiconductor IC technology and ITC industry could be well expected.

However, the next really explosive scaling route is a disruptive and revolutionary technology now appearing on the horizon – quantum computing and quantum communication. Quantum physics was discovered a hundred years ago, but there are still so many treasures to be explored in this field. The new exponential scaling law will be naturally realized in a relay race with the past 60 years of classical Moore’s Law. This super exponential scaling could realize all kinds of future technologies and applications that we can only imagine today, such as enabling explosive AI capabilities. This disruptive quantum technology compliments the progressive sub-nano semiconductor technology will result in a new wave of revolutionary industries. Multiple multi-trillion-dollar industries are waiting for us and our posterity.