Bulletin of the American Physical Society
APS March Meeting 2024
Monday–Friday, March 4–8, 2024; Minneapolis & Virtual
Session A62: Undergrad Research II
8:00 AM–11:00 AM,
Monday, March 4, 2024
Room: 208CD
Sponsoring
Unit:
APS/SPS
Chair: Earl Blodgett, Society of Physics Students
Abstract: A62.00006 : Sportsbooks and opinion dynamics on random networks*
9:00 AM–9:12 AM
Presenter:
Matheus Henrique C Gusmão
(Universidade de Pernambuco)
Authors:
Matheus Henrique C Gusmão
(Universidade de Pernambuco)
Mateus F. B. Granha
(Universidade Federal de Pernambuco)
André L. M Vilela
(Universidade de Pernambuco)
Since the onset of the global pandemic, Brazil’s sports betting app landscape has witnessed continuous growth. This thriving domain motivates us to investigate the underlying dynamics that govern betting group dynamics. We introduce an Erd ̈os-R ́enyi random network in which the connections represent social interactions among betting agents. We employ Monte Carlo simulations, and at the beginning of each time step, we assign an opinion to each agent, simulating their views on a given betting outcome that evolves under the majority-vote dynamics. Agent participation implies debiting a ticket acquisition, with reserves from all participants funding the prize pool. The winning result yields prize distribution among fans who support the prevailing opinion. This study explores the connection between an agent’s beliefs regarding potential match outcomes and their financial returns. We calculate the average return across matches for networks with varying connectivity 〈k〉 and social anxiety q while accounting for a tax imposed by the prize operator. Additionally, we introduce a function that modifies the odds for victory based on winning or losing streaks, further enriching our understanding of the dynamics at play.
*The authors acknowledge financial support from Brazilian institutions and funding agents UPE,, FACEPE, CAPES, CNPq (306068/2021-4).
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