Bulletin of the American Physical Society
APS March Meeting 2022
Volume 67, Number 3
Monday–Friday, March 14–18, 2022; Chicago
Session Y08: Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics II
8:00 AM–10:12 AM,
Friday, March 18, 2022
Room: McCormick Place W-179B
Sponsoring
Unit:
GSNP
Chair: Greg Voth, Wesleyan University
Abstract: Y08.00001 : Prediction and Suppression of Dragon Kings
8:00 AM–8:12 AM
Presenter:
Nahal S Sharafi
(Hamburg University of Applied Scineces)
Authors:
Nahal S Sharafi
(Hamburg University of Applied Scineces)
Sarah Hallerberg
(Hamburg University of Applied Science)
Sarah Hallerberg
(Hamburg University of Applied Science)
coupled chaotic circuits to demonstrate how loss of transverse stability in certain "hot spots" in the phase space of a dynamical system leads to occurrence of an extreme event. To this end we use covariant Lyapunov vectors as intrinsic directions of stability. We show how changes in the alignment between these vectors indicates a loss of stability that leads to an extreme event. We then empoly changes in the principal direction of these vectors to effectively forecast an upcoming
extreme event.
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