The real cost of chemical simulation on quantum computers

How long will it take future quantum computers to calculate energies of challenging molecular systems? We dissect this question through analysis of asymptotic bounds on quantum algorithms for Hamiltonian simulation, analysis of realistic systems, and describe a full cost estimation and run time analysis based on physical error rates within the surface code. We highlight how techniques from classical simulation of chemistry reduce resource costs by orders of magnitude to demonstrate the potential of discovery at the interface between molecular simulation science and quantum information.