Bulletin of the American Physical Society
64th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics
Volume 67, Number 15
Monday–Friday, October 17–21, 2022; Spokane, Washington
Session TO04: ICF: Compression and Burn III
9:30 AM–12:18 PM,
Thursday, October 20, 2022
Room: Ballroom 111 A
Chair: Alison Christopherson, LLNL
Abstract: TO04.00001 : Understanding Performance Variability in Mega-Joule Class Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosions*
9:30 AM–9:42 AM
Presenter:
Jim A Gaffney
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
Authors:
Jim A Gaffney
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
Kelli D Humbird
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
Andrea L Kritcher
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Michael K Kruse
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
Chris Weber
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
Eugene Kur
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Bogdan Kustowski
(Lawrence Livermore National Lab)
Brian K Spears
(Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab)
To answer these questions, multiple repeats of the MJ-class hybrid-E platform have been performed which provide explicit sampling of performance variability. We are interpreting this series of experiments using a new statistical model to learn a `global’ probability distribution that describes shot-to-shot variability. Our method uses ensembles of multiphysics simulations to link observed variations to interpretable physics degradations, which can then be linked with detailed analysis of experimental data. We use our results to explore the importance of specific degradations, and to validate our conclusions by linking to high fidelity post-shot simulations and independent analyses of experimental data. In this talk, we will demonstrate how our statistical model can be used to explore performance sensitivities in hybrid-E implosions and in new implosion designs.
*Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344. LLNL-ABS-836710
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