Bulletin of the American Physical Society
64th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Plasma Physics
Volume 67, Number 15
Monday–Friday, October 17–21, 2022; Spokane, Washington
Session CO05: ICF: Analytical and Computational Techniques
2:00 PM–5:00 PM,
Monday, October 17, 2022
Room: Ballroom 111 B
Chair: Joshua Sauppe, LANL
Abstract: CO05.00006 : How predictive are THD experiments? Bayesian analysis of the ICF data from the variability campaign*
3:00 PM–3:12 PM
Presenter:
Bogdan Kustowski
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Authors:
Bogdan Kustowski
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Jim A Gaffney
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Brian K Spears
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Ryan C Nora
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Chris R Weber
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
David J Schlossberg
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Alison R Christopherson
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Stephan A MacLaren
(Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory)
Facility of August 8, 2021, which is often referred to as being at the threshold of
ignition, has been followed by a series of repeat experiments to evaluate the
robustness of the experimental design. One of the methods that have been
developed to evaluate the variability within this repeatability campaign involves
Bayesian inference of the possible degradation mechanisms for individual
experiments simultaneously with inferring the variability within the entire series.
Meanwhile, a THD (2% deuterium) version of the 1.3 MJ experiment was carried
out on February 20, 2022, to better understand hydrodynamic properties of the
design. In this presentation, we investigate whether the THD experiment, when
included in the Bayesian variability model, provides consistent and/or new
information relative to the series of DT (50% deuterium) experiments. The
ultimate goal is to understand whether low-yield THD shots, which could be
fielded more frequently than the high-yield DT shots, should play a larger role in
designing more robust ICF experiments. LLNL-ABS-836466.
*Prepared by LLNL under Contract DE- AC52-07NA27344.
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