Applying Bayesian Methods to R-Matrix Predictions of Nuclear Reaction Observables*

In order to develop reliable predictions, the need to prioritize the comprehensive uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure and reaction predictions has only become stronger over that past several years. In line with this broader effort, I will present the results of our recent work to apply R-matrix theory to low-energy, nuclear reactions with Bayesian methods. First, I will present our analysis of the t(d,n)⍺ reaction, the results of which provide a more accurate prediction of the S factor at solar energies. Second, I will discuss our efforts to produce an accurate, well-understood prediction for the 3He–⍺ total capture S factor at solar energies from an analysis of a recent scattering measurement at TRIUMF alongside previously analyzed data. I will also cover our attempts to resolve discrepancies between the analyses of 3He–⍺ capture and scattering data. Finally, I will preview the future of Bayesian methods and R-matrix theory and similar undertakings.