Session X06: Climate Change and International Security

Climate Change and National Security: People not Polar Bears

This talk will discuss why climate change is a National Security issue.  Climate change is about people, about water, and about change itself.  I will cover some of the basic science and why mainstream climate scientists are very confident of their findings, how this challenge is being addressed, and what are the greatest challenges to emergency management that arise from climate change.  I will conclude with an assessment of future challenges and opportunities regarding climate change, from science, policy, and political perspectives.  In addition, this talk will address how to effectively talk about climate change through the use of analogies, plain, non-jargon English, and even a little humor.

    

Climate and Conflict: Towards a Global Green Economy and a World of Societal Change

Climate change is increasingly affecting human society.  However, in discussions of mitigation and adaptation, most scientific approaches – and even policy approaches – skirt the implications for conflict, violence, and peacebuilding. 

 

While a global transition to green energy yields huge societal benefits, it also has the potential to fuel conflict:  geopolitical competition for mineral control; mining operations in fragile states that disregard human rights and result in pollution of land and water; decarbonization of economies that leads to destabilization of national governments; localized disputes around land rights and benefit sharing for expansion of green technologies; and social unrest as societies try to adapt to new economies.  Although the technological advances have been considerable, they are not a solution to climate change on their own; the risk of conflict needs to be considered as part of global and national efforts to transition to green energy.

 

Another aspect of climate change that could lead to violent conflict is the way that climate change is jeopardizing human security.  For thousands of years, migration has been a way for human society to adapt to environmental change.  But now we face places increasingly becoming inhospitable for human society:  an estimated 30 percent of the global population in 2070 will live in areas that experience a mean annual temperature currently found less than one percent of the Earth’s surface.  Scientists have a role to play here, too — especially in terms of predicting the impacts and providing society time to develop global approaches to safe and humane pathways to other geographies.

 

Such policy issues require scientists to increasingly work hand in hand with social scientists, policy-makers, and civil society groups to address the ramifications of our response to climate change and to reduce the risk of violent conflict around the world.   

Climate Change and Water Weaponization in the Middle East and Africa

Overuse, population growth and climate change are driving water stress and turning water into a tool for conflict in the Middle East and Africa. Violent Extremists Organizations (VEOs), among others, have seized upon this opportunity to weaponize water. Strategies and tactics for doing so vary widely according to the capabilities and goals of the group that wields it. Using examples from Syria and Iraq, the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, this presentation will elucidate emerging approaches toward and categories of weaponization. Ultimately it will suggest actions national governments and the international community can take discourage further normalization of water weaponization in modern warfare.