Session H6: Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear Terrorists

Is the Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator Robust?

The Administration's proposal to develop a Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator led to controversy in Congress. Congress eventually rejected funding for the proposal and also requested that the National Academies study the concept. If the report has cleared classification review and been approved for release, this talk will cover the main points of the study.   

Can Nuclear Terrorists be Deterred?

Conventional thinking since September 11, 2001, posits that nuclear-armed terrorists cannot be deterred. However, not all terrorist groups are alike. For instance, those that are strongly affiliated with a national territory or a constituency that can be held hostage are more likely to be self-deterred against using or even acquiring nuclear weapons. In contrast, international terrorist organizations, such as al Qaeda, or apocalyptic groups, such as Aum Shinrikyo, may welcome retaliatory nuclear strikes because they embrace martyrdom. Such groups may be immune to traditional deterrence, which threatens direct punishment against the group in question or against territory or people the terrorists’ value. Although deterring these groups may appear hopeless, nuclear forensic techniques could provide the means to establish deterrence through other means. In particular, as long as the source of the nuclear weapon or fissile material could be identified, the United States could threaten a retaliatory response against a nation that did not provide adequate security for its nuclear weapons or weapons-usable fissile material. This type of deterrent threat could be used to compel the nation with lax security to improve its security to meet rigorous standards.   

Need the U.S. resume nuclear weapons testing?

The United States has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992. Nuclear weapons are very complicated devices and have many possible failure modes. The U.S. has invested many hundreds of millions of dollars and many thousands of man-years in ensuring the safety and security of the stockpile. Are these efforts sufficient? Do we understand how nuclear weapons work---and decay---sufficiently well to preclude the need for further testing? This presentation will examine how nuclear weapons work, describe possible failure modes, and explore various technologies and techniques used for certifying nuclear weapons. The presentation will also explore what, if any, useful information would likely be gained from a nuclear weapon test. Finally, the presentation will examine the statistics of small numbers to determine how many tests would likely be needed to reveal complicated problems with the arsenal.