Impact Factor volatility to a single paper: A comprehensive analysis of 11639 journals

We study how a single paper affects the Impact Factor (IF) by analyzing data from 3,088,511 papers published in 11639 journals in the 2017 Journal Citation Reports of Clarivate Analytics. We find that IFs are highly volatile. For example, the top-cited paper of 381 journals caused their IF to increase by more than 0.5 points, while for 818 journals the relative increase exceeded 25%. And one in 10 journals had their IF boosted by more than 50% by their top three cited papers. Because the single-paper effect on the IF is inversely proportional to journal size, small journals are rewarded much more strongly than large journals for a highly-cited paper, while they are penalized more for a low-cited paper, especially if their IF is high. This skewed reward mechanism incentivizes high-IF journals to stay small, to remain competitive in rankings. We discuss the implications for breakthrough papers to appear in prestigious journals. We also question the reliability of IF rankings given the high IF sensitivity to a handful of papers for thousands of journals.