The Emergence of Spatial Patterns in Tree Yield: A New Model for the Masting Phenomenon*

The emergence of patterns of synchrony is ubiquitous across many fields, including ecological systems in which synchrony can be both favorable and detrimental. The prevalence of synchrony creates the expectation of the existence of detail-independent principles that can explain and predict this phenomenon and its emergence. A notable example of synchrony is the “masting” phenomenon observed in many plant species in which individual plants show variable annual production (bearing), which is spatially correlated. External forces and local dynamics can lead to the emergence of spatial patterns or full synchrony in such systems. Currently, existing models for masting phenomenon, while proposing a mechanism for alternate bearing, do not address the spatial patterns observed in real data. In this talk, we introduce a new model to emulate the observed spatial patterns and study the effects of local coupling and external forces on the dynamics of the system.