Bulletin of the American Physical Society
APS April Meeting 2021
Volume 66, Number 5
Saturday–Tuesday, April 17–20, 2021; Virtual; Time Zone: Central Daylight Time, USA
Session Y05: The Changing Nuclear World OrderInvited Live Outreach Undergrad Friendly
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Sponsoring Units: FPS Chair: Stewart Prager, Princeton University |
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 1:30PM - 2:06PM Live |
Y05.00001: Leo Szilard Lectureship Award (2021): Reducing Nuclear Weapons and the Risk of Nuclear War Invited Speaker: Steve Fetter The Cold War ended 30 years ago, but nuclear weapons and the threat of nuclear war remain. Nine countries together deploy about 10,000 nuclear weapons, most with a destructive potential an order of magnitude greater than the bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The United States and Russia, which together account for 90 percent of global stockpiles, each maintain about 1000 nuclear weapons on constant alert, ready to be launched in a few minutes. Arms control agreements that have constrained US and Russian arsenals and provided stability are on the brink of collapse, and both countries are poised to field a new generation of nuclear weapons. Physicists played a vital role at the beginning of the nuclear age and throughout the Cold War in engaging policymakers about nuclear dangers and advocating for policies to reduce them. Physicists should again take a leading role in educating the public and policymakers. [Preview Abstract] |
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 2:06PM - 2:42PM Live |
Y05.00002: Nuclear Weapons and Missile Defense Invited Speaker: Frederick Lamb The new nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that are being deployed by Russia, China, and North Korea are the latest developments in a decades-long competition between nuclear offenses and defenses. I will summarize the current state of this competition. New offensive weapons include North Korea's ICBMs and Russia's Sarmat ICBM and Avangard hypersonic boost-glide vehicle. Efforts to protect the United States from ICBMs using missile defense technology include the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense and Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense systems. Proposed new approaches include air- and space-based rocket interceptor systems that, if successful, could disable attacking ICBMs during their boost phase. I will summarize the history of responses to the development and deployment of missile defense systems, and possible responses to the development and deployment of new types of systems by the United States. [Preview Abstract] |
Tuesday, April 20, 2021 2:42PM - 3:18PM Live |
Y05.00003: The Emerging Technologies Arms Race, Nuclear Weapons, and Global Security Invited Speaker: Sebastien Philippe A new technological arms race, led by the United States, Russia, and China, has begun, involving a competitive search for disruptive technologies with potentially profound military and global security implications. Such technologies as artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, quantum technologies, sensors with continuous global coverage, along with hypersonic, highly precise, and maneuverable weapon systems, are rapidly being developed and integrated into existing military structures and capabilities. The key goals of these efforts are to accelerate the tempo of warfare by reducing the time to detect, target, and destroy military objectives, to expand to a global scale the space for such actions, and to conduct them with increased precision. This arms race is reinforced by elite discourses within the major powers characterized by over-promising, parity-seeking, and fears of falling behind, as well as a sense of inevitability rooted in technological determinism. There are grounds, however, for skepticism and uncertainty in whether these still emerging technologies can credibly yield the promised new revolution in military affairs within the foreseeable future. When and whether this prospective revolution will prove technologically feasible, however, has serious global security implications. If perceived as successful, this revolution could conceivably provide those with access to these new technologies with the capacity to threaten deployed nuclear delivery systems with successful counterforce attacks anywhere and at any time -- signaling the obsolescence of existing and future nuclear forces as survivable, credible means of deterrence. Such a radical development could enable new interest in nuclear arms reduction and disarmament for some states, but could drive other states towards even riskier postures and increase the likelihood of nuclear war. In either case, new forms of international cooperation aimed at restraining military capabilities, doctrines, postures, and escalation pathways will be required. This talk will present the current technological arms race, highlighting key enabling technologies, with the goal to better understand the compounding factors and risks associated with the rapid development, militarization, and deployment of emerging technologies, including the scientific and technical basis for any claims of potential transformative impacts, as well as possible arms control measures and other restraint options. It will also make suggestions on how the physics community could get involved in this debate. [Preview Abstract] |
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